14138 leans heavily Republican by roughly 50 points: about 25% of voters vote Democratic and 75% Republican.
About 60% of adults in 14138 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 14138, ~15% vote Democratic, ~45% Republican, and ~40% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 14138 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 14138 leans more Republican than 18 of 20 neighbors.
14138 runs about 62 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 14138 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 14138. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+57) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+43), a spread of about 14 points.
Why 14138 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 14138, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
14138 votes against the grain of New York. New York leans Democratic overall, while 14138 runs about 62 points more Republican. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and 14138 sits in the bottom quarter (about 16%, below 78% of zip codes).
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; 14138, NY sits below the national average on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 14138 looks the way it does
Areas with low high-school completion turn out at lower rates. About 83% of adults in 14138 have completed high school, about 7 points below the U.S. average of 90%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 4% of homes in 14138 have more than one occupant per room, above 82% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.