15863 is a Republican stronghold. About 16% of voters here vote Democratic and 84% Republican.
About 52% of adults in 15863 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 15863, ~8% vote Democratic, ~44% Republican, and ~48% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 15863 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 15863 leans more Republican than 16 of 25 neighbors.
15863 runs about 67 points more Republican than Pennsylvania as a whole.
Why 15863 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 15863, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 7% of adults in 15863 hold a bachelor's degree, about 18 points below the Pennsylvania average of 26%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 75% of households in 15863 are family households, above 81% of zip codes.
High-school completion and voter turnout
Places with low high-school-completion share tend to turn out at a lower rate; 15863, PA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 15863 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 15863 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 72% of adults in 15863 have completed high school, below 97% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Pennsylvania Department of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.