21054 leans Democratic by roughly 20 points: about 60% of voters vote Democratic and 40% Republican.
About 85% of adults in 21054 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 21054, ~51% vote Democratic, ~34% Republican, and ~15% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 21054 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 21054 leans more Democratic than 16 of 54 neighbors.
21054 runs about 9 points more Republican than Maryland as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 21054. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+40) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+10), a spread of about 49 points.
Why 21054 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 21054, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 60% of adults in 21054 hold a bachelor's degree, about 31 points above the U.S. average of 28%. Density combined with diversity predicts Democratic voting, and non-Hispanic white share in 21054 is about 59%, below 78% of zip codes.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 21054, MD sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 21054 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 21054 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Maryland State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.