23045 leans heavily Republican by roughly 48 points: about 26% of voters vote Democratic and 74% Republican.
About 77% of adults in 23045 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 23045, ~20% vote Democratic, ~57% Republican, and ~23% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 23045 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 23045 is the most Republican-leaning.
23045 runs about 53 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 23045 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 23045 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 23045, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
23045 votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 23045 runs about 53 points more Republican.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine high-school-completion-heavy adults and a rural land-use pattern tend to turn out at a higher rate, as 23045, VA does.
Why turnout in 23045 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 23045 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 69%, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in 23045 have completed high school, above 90% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.