33838 leans slightly Republican by roughly 10 points: about 45% of voters vote Democratic and 55% Republican.
About 63% of adults in 33838 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 33838, ~29% vote Democratic, ~35% Republican, and ~36% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 33838 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 33838 leans more Republican than 6 of 16 neighbors.
Politically, 33838 sits close to the rest of Florida.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 33838. The south side runs the most Democratic (Even) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+20), a spread of about 21 points.
Why 33838 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 33838, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 13% of adults in 33838 hold a bachelor's degree, about 18 points below the Florida average of 31%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 77% of households in 33838 are family households, above 86% of zip codes.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 33838, FL sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 33838 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 33838 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 39%, about 18 points below the Florida average of 56%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.