38119 leans Democratic by roughly 26 points: about 63% of voters vote Democratic and 37% Republican.
About 68% of adults in 38119 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 38119, ~43% vote Democratic, ~25% Republican, and ~32% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 38119 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 38119 leans more Democratic than 16 of 39 neighbors.
38119 runs about 56 points more Democratic than Tennessee as a whole. Tennessee leans Republican overall, while 38119 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 38119. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+51) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+10), a spread of about 60 points.
Why 38119 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 38119, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Density combined with diversity predicts Democratic voting. Non-Hispanic white share in 38119 is about 47%, about 25 points below the U.S. average of 72%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and 38119 sits in the top quarter (about 51%, above 89% of zip codes). 38119 runs against the grain of Tennessee, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; 38119, TN sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 38119 looks the way it does
Turnout in 38119 sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Tennessee Secretary of State, Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.