49815 leans heavily Republican by roughly 40 points: about 30% of voters vote Democratic and 70% Republican.
About 81% of adults in 49815 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 49815, ~24% vote Democratic, ~57% Republican, and ~19% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 49815 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 49815 leans more Republican than 2 of 4 neighbors.
49815 runs about 38 points more Republican than Michigan as a whole.
Why 49815 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 49815, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 3% of residents in 49815 live in densely developed areas, about 29 points below the Michigan average of 31%.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; 49815, MI sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 49815 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 49815 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 88% of households in 49815 own their home, above 82% of zip codes. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in 49815 have completed high school, above 90% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Michigan Department of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.