51510 leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.
About 69% of adults in 51510 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 51510, ~29% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~31% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 51510 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 51510 leans more Republican than 39 of 46 neighbors.
Politically, 51510 sits close to the rest of Iowa.
Why 51510 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 51510, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
51510 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 86%, far above the Iowa average of 16%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and 51510 sits in the bottom quarter (about 10%, below 95% of zip codes). A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 77% of households in 51510 are family households, above 86% of zip codes.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; 51510, IA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 51510 looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 91% of households in 51510 own their home, about 9 points above the Iowa average of 81%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Iowa Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.