64154 is a true toss-up. About 51% of voters here vote Democratic and 49% Republican.
About 71% of adults in 64154 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 64154, ~36% vote Democratic, ~35% Republican, and ~29% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 64154 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 64154 sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 23 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 29 leaning the other way.
64154 runs about 21 points more Democratic than Missouri as a whole. Missouri leans Republican overall, while 64154 sits closer to the political middle.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 64154. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+18) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+15), a spread of about 33 points.
Why 64154 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 64154, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
64154 votes against the grain of Missouri. Missouri leans Republican overall, while 64154 runs about 21 points more Democratic.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; 64154, MO sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 64154 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 64154 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 69%, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in 64154 have completed high school, above 90% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.