78261 leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 77% of adults in 78261 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 78261, ~35% vote Democratic, ~42% Republican, and ~23% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 78261 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 78261 leans more Republican than 23 of 31 neighbors.
78261 runs about 5 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 78261. The northeast side is the most split-leaning (R+23) and the east side is the least split-leaning (Even), a spread of about 22 points.
Why 78261 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 78261, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 76% of households in 78261 are family households, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 78261, TX sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 78261 looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 97% of adults in 78261 have completed high school, about 11 points above the Texas average of 86%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.