78586 is a true toss-up. About 49% of voters here vote Democratic and 51% Republican.
About 43% of adults in 78586 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 78586, ~21% vote Democratic, ~22% Republican, and ~57% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 78586 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 78586 sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 3 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 8 leaning the other way.
78586 runs about 11 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 78586. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+3) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+10), a spread of about 13 points.
Why 78586 leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in 78586. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as 78586, TX does.
Why turnout in 78586 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 78586 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 44%, about 10 points below the Texas average of 54%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 67% of adults in 78586 have completed high school, in the bottom fraction of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.