86511 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 48 points: about 74% of voters vote Democratic and 26% Republican.
About 64% of adults in 86511 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86511, ~47% vote Democratic, ~17% Republican, and ~36% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86511 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 86511 leans more Democratic than 2 of 3 neighbors.
86511 runs about 54 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 86511 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 86511. The west side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+56) and the east side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+45), a spread of about 11 points.
Why 86511 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 86511, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
86511 votes against the grain of Arizona. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 86511 runs about 54 points more Democratic. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 49% of adults in 86511 have never been married, above 95% of zip codes.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 86511, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 86511 looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 94% of households in 86511 own their home, about 21 points above the Arizona average of 73%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and 86511 sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.