88038 is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 43% of adults in 88038 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 88038, ~21% vote Democratic, ~22% Republican, and ~57% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 88038 compares
88038 sits in a sparsely populated area with few comparable zip codes nearby.
88038 runs about 10 points more Republican than New Mexico as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 88038. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+9) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+40), a spread of about 50 points.
Why 88038 leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in 88038. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; 88038, NM sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 88038 looks the way it does
Turnout in 88038 sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.