94038 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 50 points: about 75% of voters vote Democratic and 25% Republican.
About 74% of adults in 94038 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 94038, ~56% vote Democratic, ~19% Republican, and ~25% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 94038 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 94038 leans more Democratic than 18 of 23 neighbors.
94038 runs about 30 points more Democratic than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 94038. The north side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+55) and the west side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+42), a spread of about 13 points.
Why 94038 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 94038, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 50% of adults in 94038 hold a bachelor's degree, about 22 points above the U.S. average of 28%.
Park access and Democratic lean
Places with heavy park coverage tend to lean Democratic; 94038, CA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in 94038 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 94038 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 72%, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and more than 99% of households in 94038 own their home, compared to around 69% in nearby zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.