Aurora is a Republican stronghold. About 24% of voters here vote Democratic and 76% Republican.
About 74% of adults in Aurora typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Aurora, ~18% vote Democratic, ~56% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Aurora compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Aurora leans more Republican than 5 of 68 neighbors.
Aurora runs about 33 points more Republican than Missouri as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Aurora. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+65) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+47), a spread of about 18 points.
Why Aurora leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Aurora, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Aurora votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 48%, well above the Missouri average of 22%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Aurora sits in the bottom quarter (about 13%, below 84% of cities).
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Aurora, MO sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Aurora looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Aurora is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Sage Hill, MO R+69
- Verona, MO R+66
- McKinley, MO R+66
- Orange, MO R+69
- Bonham, MO R+66
- Marionville, MO R+60
- Pleasant Ridge, MO R+69
- Logan, MO R+66
- Madry, MO R+71
- Scholten, MO R+70
Cities with Similar Populations
- Milton, VT R+9
- Lake Park, FL D+38
- Micco, FL R+29
- Lucasville, OH R+56
- Devils Lake, ND R+25
- Stanford, KY R+57
- Hamilton, AL R+78
- Clyde, OH R+41
- Lynwood, IL D+67
- Savoy, IL D+29
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.