Bakers Mills, NY Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Bakers Mills

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Bakers Mills is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.

 

About 72% of adults in Bakers Mills typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Bakers Mills, ~35% vote Democratic, ~37% Republican, and ~28% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Bakers Mills compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Bakers Mills leans more Republican than 10 of 39 neighbors.

Bakers Mills runs about 17 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while Bakers Mills is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Bakers Mills. The north side runs the most Democratic (Even) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+15), a spread of about 15 points.

Why Bakers Mills leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Bakers Mills, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Bakers Mills votes against the grain of New York. New York leans Democratic overall, while Bakers Mills runs about 17 points more Republican.

Population density and Republican lean

Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Bakers Mills, NY sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.

Why turnout in Bakers Mills looks the way it does

Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Bakers Mills is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 66%, about 6 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.