Birch Tree is a Republican stronghold. About 15% of voters here vote Democratic and 85% Republican.
About 76% of adults in Birch Tree typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Birch Tree, ~11% vote Democratic, ~65% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Birch Tree compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Birch Tree leans more Republican than 22 of 33 neighbors.
Birch Tree runs about 52 points more Republican than Missouri as a whole.
Why Birch Tree leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Birch Tree, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 90% of residents in Birch Tree drive to work alone, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 74%.
Park access and Democratic lean
Places with heavy park coverage tend to lean Democratic; Birch Tree, MO sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in Birch Tree looks the way it does
Turnout in Birch Tree sits close to the national pattern. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Pine Crest, MO R+71
- Delaware, MO R+71
- Winona, MO R+69
- Mountain View, MO R+64
- Oakside, MO R+69
- Turnerville, MO R+70
- Thomasville, MO R+74
- Montier, MO R+67
- New Liberty, MO R+72
- Eminence, MO R+62
Cities with Similar Populations
- Clifton, IL R+48
- Jenkins, KY R+67
- Penrose, NC R+24
- Seven Hills, AL R+63
- Smith Center, KS R+68
- Sligo, PA R+63
- Lacygne, KS R+58
- St. Lawrence, PA R+7
- Kingsley, IA R+49
- Jamesport, MO R+65
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.