Brainerd leans Republican by roughly 28 points: about 36% of voters vote Democratic and 64% Republican.
About 80% of adults in Brainerd typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Brainerd, ~29% vote Democratic, ~51% Republican, and ~20% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Brainerd compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Brainerd leans more Republican than 6 of 36 neighbors.
Brainerd runs about 32 points more Republican than Minnesota as a whole. Minnesota leans Democratic overall, while Brainerd is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Brainerd. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+39) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+13), a spread of about 26 points.
Why Brainerd leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Brainerd, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Brainerd votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 38%, modestly above the Minnesota average of 23%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Brainerd runs against the grain of Minnesota, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Brainerd, MN sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Brainerd looks the way it does
Turnout in Brainerd sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Baxter, MN R+19
- Riverton, MN R+36
- Lake Hubert, MN R+33
- Crow Wing, MN R+55
- East Gull Lake, MN R+34
- Sylvan, MN R+36
- Nisswa, MN R+24
- Fort Ripley, MN R+55
- Merrifield, MN R+32
- Ironton, MN R+38
Cities with Similar Populations
- Tullahoma, TN R+47
- Nanuet, NY D+9
- Mount Washington, KY R+49
- Vienna, VA D+40
- Dyersburg, TN R+37
- Caledonia, WI R+6
- Hummelstown, PA D+4
- Menomonie, WI Even
- Canby, OR Even
- Highland, IN Even
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Minnesota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.