Commerce is a Republican stronghold. About 15% of voters here vote Democratic and 85% Republican.
About 77% of adults in Commerce typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Commerce, ~11% vote Democratic, ~66% Republican, and ~23% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Commerce compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Commerce leans more Republican than 62 of 75 neighbors.
Commerce runs about 51 points more Republican than Missouri as a whole.
Why Commerce leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Commerce, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 89% of residents in Commerce drive to work alone, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 74%.
Frequent mental distress and voter turnout
Places with a low frequent-mental-distress rate tend to turn out at a higher rate; Commerce, MO sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Reported mental distress does not drive turnout; it reflects economic and health conditions tied to voting.
Why turnout in Commerce looks the way it does
Turnout in Commerce sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Thebes, IL R+32
- Kelso, MO R+69
- Scott City, MO R+59
- Benton, MO R+64
- Haywood City, MO R+67
- Lambert, MO R+63
- Olive Branch, IL Even
- Gale, IL R+54
- Rockview, MO R+70
Cities with Similar Populations
- Edmondson, AR D+4
- Dunlevy, PA R+36
- Macksburg, OH R+67
- Parmele, NC D+30
- Wellington, IL R+62
- Prescott, OR R+20
- Johnson, MS R+81
- Neuern, WI R+48
- Moorestown, MI R+52
- La Villita, NM D+14
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.