Dover leans heavily Republican by roughly 46 points: about 27% of voters vote Democratic and 73% Republican.
About 64% of adults in Dover typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Dover, ~17% vote Democratic, ~47% Republican, and ~36% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Dover compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Dover leans more Republican than 62 of 70 neighbors.
Dover runs about 56 points more Republican than Illinois as a whole. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Dover is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Dover leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Dover, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dover votes against the grain of Illinois. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Dover runs about 56 points more Republican.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Dover, IL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Dover looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 90% of households in Dover own their home, about 11 points above the Illinois average of 80%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Malden, IL R+43
- Zearing, IL R+36
- Kasbeer, IL R+45
- Princeton, IL R+22
- Hollowayville, IL R+33
- Van Orin, IL R+44
- Arlington, IL R+36
- Ohio, IL R+43
- Seatonville, IL R+28
- Bureau, IL R+42
Cities with Similar Populations
- Center, IN R+63
- Lindy, NE R+35
- Luray, SC D+17
- Hindostan Falls, IN R+64
- Bixby, MO R+68
- Garrison, NE R+65
- West Whately, MA D+45
- Haskins, IA R+44
- Clarktown, TN R+74
- Reno, IL R+55
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Illinois State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.