Durham leans Republican by roughly 28 points: about 36% of voters vote Democratic and 64% Republican.
About 83% of adults in Durham typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Durham, ~30% vote Democratic, ~53% Republican, and ~17% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Durham compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Durham leans more Republican than 93 of 121 neighbors.
Durham runs about 41 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while Durham is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Durham leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Durham, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Durham votes against the grain of New York. New York leans Democratic overall, while Durham runs about 41 points more Republican.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Durham, NY sits above the national average on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Durham looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 91% of households in Durham own their home, about 15 points above the New York average of 76%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Oak Hill, NY R+26
- West Durham, NY R+29
- Cornwallville, NY R+28
- Preston Hollow, NY R+22
- East Durham, NY R+27
- Medusa, NY R+17
- Lambs Corner, NY R+25
- North Settlement, NY R+21
- Windham, NY R+6
- Manor Kill, NY R+40
Cities with Similar Populations
- Adrian, TX R+84
- Bogue, KS R+72
- Hinkles, GA R+59
- Shawvers Crossing, WV R+60
- Johnsonburg, NY R+51
- Hentown, GA R+3
- Huntley, MN R+50
- Meacham, OR R+49
- Martinville, AR R+56
- Jesse, OK R+65
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.