Frederick leans heavily Republican by roughly 30 points: about 35% of voters vote Democratic and 65% Republican.
About 94% of adults in Frederick typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Frederick, ~33% vote Democratic, ~61% Republican, and ~6% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Frederick compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Frederick leans more Republican than 156 of 178 neighbors.
Frederick runs about 29 points more Republican than Pennsylvania as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Frederick. The north side is the most Republican-leaning (R+39) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+9), a spread of about 30 points.
Why Frederick leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Frederick, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Frederick votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 20%, modestly below the Pennsylvania average of 33%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Renting and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; Frederick, PA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Frederick looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Frederick is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 70%, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 95% of households in Frederick own their home, about 20 points above the U.S. average of 75%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in Frederick have completed high school, above 85% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Gilbertsville, PA R+14
- Zieglerville, PA R+16
- Perkiomenville, PA R+19
- New Berlinville, PA R+31
- Bechtelsville, PA R+33
- Barto, PA R+37
- Boyertown, PA R+30
- Red Hill, PA R+12
- Bally, PA R+24
- Woxhall, PA R+25
Cities with Similar Populations
- Aberdeen Gardens, WA R+35
- Little Switzerland, NC R+59
- Woodbury, MI R+42
- Mount Salem, KY R+69
- Schofield, MO R+71
- Randall, IA R+40
- New Liberty, IA R+44
- Daggett, CA R+34
- Nicolville, MN R+26
- Hamilton, WA R+33
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Pennsylvania Department of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.