Jefferson-Carl Ben is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.
About 49% of adults in Jefferson-Carl Ben typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Jefferson-Carl Ben, ~25% vote Democratic, ~24% Republican, and ~51% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Jefferson-Carl Ben compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Jefferson-Carl Ben leans more Democratic than 7 of 16 neighbors.
Jefferson-Carl Ben runs about 41 points more Democratic than North Dakota as a whole. North Dakota leans Republican overall, while Jefferson-Carl Ben is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Jefferson-Carl Ben. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+11) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+3), a spread of about 14 points.
Why Jefferson-Carl Ben leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Jefferson-Carl Ben, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Density pulls a place toward Democrats and a high white share pulls it toward Republicans. In Jefferson-Carl Ben the two roughly cancel. Jefferson-Carl Ben runs against the grain of North Dakota, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Jefferson-Carl Ben, Fargo, ND sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Jefferson-Carl Ben looks the way it does
High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, mostly because the housing stress common in those areas makes voting harder. Jefferson-Carl Ben sits in the top 15% nationally on a violent-crime measure. See CrimeGrade for more details. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- University, Buffalo, NY D+52
- Chambers Heights, Aurora, CO D+28
- South Bank, Oxnard, CA D+30
- Parkway and Cherry Point, Lubbock, TX D+54
- Deschutes River Woods, Bend, OR R+13
- Hadwen Park, Worcester, MA D+20
- West Woods, Golden, CO D+17
- Mooretown and Hollywood Heights, Shreveport, LA D+90
- Pecan Springs Springdale, Austin, TX D+69
- Cortez-Stege, Richmond, CA D+66
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from North Dakota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.