Likely, CA Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Likely

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Likely is a Republican stronghold. About 21% of voters here vote Democratic and 79% Republican.

 

About 45% of adults in Likely typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Likely, ~9% vote Democratic, ~36% Republican, and ~55% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Likely compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Likely is the most Republican-leaning.

Likely runs about 78 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Likely is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.

Why Likely leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Likely, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Likely votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Likely runs about 78 points more Republican. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Likely sits in the bottom quarter (about 13%, below 86% of cities).

Paved land cover and Republican lean

Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Likely, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.

Why turnout in Likely looks the way it does

Renters vote less often than owners. About 31% of households in Likely rent, about 6 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.