Mesa is a Republican stronghold. About 20% of voters here vote Democratic and 80% Republican.
About 47% of adults in Mesa typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Mesa, ~9% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~53% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Mesa compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Mesa leans more Republican than 6 of 8 neighbors.
Mesa runs about 79 points more Republican than Washington as a whole. Washington leans Democratic overall, while Mesa is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Mesa. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+78) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+53), a spread of about 25 points.
Why Mesa leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Mesa, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Mesa votes against the grain of Washington. Washington leans Democratic overall, while Mesa runs about 79 points more Republican. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 83% of households in Mesa are family households, above 95% of cities.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Mesa, WA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Mesa looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Mesa is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The uninsured rate here is about 23%, about 15 points above the Washington average of 9%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 34% of households in Mesa rent, above 89% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Eltopia, WA R+70
- Connell, WA R+47
- Othello, WA R+27
- Hatton, WA R+61
- Richland, WA R+9
- Pasco, WA R+9
- West Richland, WA R+30
- Cunningham, WA R+60
- Smyrna, WA R+57
- Kiona, WA R+54
Cities with Similar Populations
- Powell Butte, OR R+45
- Riverton, IL R+26
- Moravian Falls, NC R+56
- Eglin Afb, FL R+28
- Bishop, TX R+13
- Verbena, AL R+75
- South Chicago Heights, IL D+15
- Lee Acres, NM R+53
- Caledonia, NY R+25
- Orleans, IN R+58
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Washington Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.