Number Four leans Republican by roughly 24 points: about 38% of voters vote Democratic and 62% Republican.
About 71% of adults in Number Four typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Number Four, ~27% vote Democratic, ~44% Republican, and ~29% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Number Four compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Number Four leans more Republican than 4 of 46 neighbors.
Number Four runs about 37 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while Number Four is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Number Four. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+36) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+17), a spread of about 20 points.
Why Number Four leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Number Four, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas with a high white share vote Republican. Number Four sits in the bottom quarter on density and about 98% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 20 points above the New York average of 79%. Number Four runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Developed land and Republican lean
Places with a rural land-use pattern tend to lean Republican; Number Four, NY sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Developed land does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Number Four looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Number Four is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 66%, about 6 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 94% of households in Number Four own their home, about 19 points above the U.S. average of 75%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Kirschnerville, NY R+37
- Crystal Dale, NY R+38
- Croghan, NY R+43
- Petries Corners, NY R+48
- Beaver Falls, NY R+51
- Indian River, NY R+52
- Pine Grove, NY R+49
- New Bremen, NY R+48
- Brantingham, NY R+28
Cities with Similar Populations
- Cordelia, CA Even
- Artesia Wells, TX R+47
- Coldwater, KY R+60
- DeLena, OR R+34
- Isney, AL R+37
- Motters, MD R+55
- Dupont, LA R+81
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.