San Rafael leans heavily Democratic by roughly 46 points: about 73% of voters vote Democratic and 27% Republican.
About 67% of adults in San Rafael typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in San Rafael, ~49% vote Democratic, ~18% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How San Rafael compares
Among cities within 25 miles, San Rafael leans more Democratic than 33 of 71 neighbors.
San Rafael runs about 26 points more Democratic than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within San Rafael. The southwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+67) and the north side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+36), a spread of about 31 points.
Why San Rafael leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for San Rafael, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 78% of residents in San Rafael live in densely developed areas, about 41 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and San Rafael sits in the top quarter (about 50%, above 93% of cities). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 34% of adults in San Rafael have never been married, above 86% of cities.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; San Rafael, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in San Rafael looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. San Rafael is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 68%, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Ross, CA D+52
- San Anselmo, CA D+60
- Kentfield, CA D+54
- Greenbrae, CA D+51
- Larkspur, CA D+58
- Sleepy Hollow, CA D+55
- Fairfax, CA D+73
- San Quentin, CA D+41
- Corte Madera, CA D+56
- Mill Valley, CA D+55
Cities with Similar Populations
- Palatine, IL D+19
- Passaic, NJ D+5
- Centreville, VA D+26
- Huntington Park, CA D+37
- Hammond, IN D+31
- Morgantown, WV D+13
- Statesville, NC R+20
- Janesville, WI D+5
- Union City, NJ D+14
- Leesburg, VA D+17
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.