St. Paul is a Republican stronghold. About 19% of voters here vote Democratic and 81% Republican.
About 51% of adults in St. Paul typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in St. Paul, ~10% vote Democratic, ~41% Republican, and ~49% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How St. Paul compares
Among cities within 25 miles, St. Paul leans more Republican than 23 of 51 neighbors.
St. Paul runs about 31 points more Republican than Arkansas as a whole.
Why St. Paul leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for St. Paul, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 3% of residents in St. Paul live in densely developed areas, about 10 points below the Arkansas average of 13%.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; St. Paul, AR sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in St. Paul looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 9% of homes in St. Paul have more than one occupant per room, above 96% of cities. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and St. Paul sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 83% of adults in St. Paul have completed high school, below 85% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Pettigrew, AR R+63
- Combs, AR R+57
- Witter, AR R+65
- Friley, AR R+62
- Red Star, AR R+64
- Cass, AR R+67
- Japton, AR R+64
- Aurora, AR R+64
- Mountain Crest, AR R+59
- Oark, AR R+62
Cities with Similar Populations
- Little Shasta, CA R+48
- Bryantsville, KY R+52
- Bridgeland, UT R+84
- Red Lick, MS D+68
- Camak, GA Even
- Rosati, MO R+61
- South Trenton, NY R+31
- Clifford, PA R+36
- Picacho, AZ R+46
- Chula, MO R+68
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.