Thomas Settlement leans heavily Republican by roughly 36 points: about 32% of voters vote Democratic and 68% Republican.
About 69% of adults in Thomas Settlement typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Thomas Settlement, ~22% vote Democratic, ~47% Republican, and ~31% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Thomas Settlement compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Thomas Settlement leans more Republican than 38 of 73 neighbors.
Thomas Settlement runs about 48 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while Thomas Settlement is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Thomas Settlement leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Thomas Settlement, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Thomas Settlement votes against the grain of New York. New York leans Democratic overall, while Thomas Settlement runs about 48 points more Republican. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 82% of households in Thomas Settlement are family households, above 92% of cities.
Housing overcrowding and voter turnout
Places with low overcrowding tend to turn out at a higher rate; Thomas Settlement, NY sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Thomas Settlement looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Thomas Settlement is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 63%, above 60% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Adams, NY R+31
- Smithville, NY R+30
- Taylor Settlement, NY R+37
- Belleville, NY R+39
- Rural Hill, NY R+34
- Allendale, NY R+44
- Adams Center, NY R+25
- Henderson Harbor, NY R+24
- Henderson, NY R+26
- Pierrepont Manor, NY R+44
Cities with Similar Populations
- Ray, MN R+34
- Ebenezer, MS D+40
- Humarock, MA Even
- Middle Spring, PA R+46
- Prospect, NY R+32
- Irona, NY R+36
- Rockland, KY R+60
- Keetley, UT R+27
- Tatum, SC R+22
- Bradfordton, IL R+19
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.