Trail leans heavily Republican by roughly 38 points: about 31% of voters vote Democratic and 69% Republican.
About 66% of adults in Trail typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Trail, ~20% vote Democratic, ~45% Republican, and ~35% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Trail compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Trail leans more Republican than 8 of 13 neighbors.
Trail runs about 53 points more Republican than Oregon as a whole. Oregon leans Democratic overall, while Trail is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Trail. The north side is the most Republican-leaning (R+44) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+31), a spread of about 13 points.
Why Trail leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Trail, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Trail votes against the grain of Oregon. Oregon leans Democratic overall, while Trail runs about 53 points more Republican. Rural areas vote Republican, and Trail sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 4%, below 84% of cities).
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Trail, OR sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Trail looks the way it does
Turnout in Trail sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Shady Cove, OR R+27
- Prospect, OR R+41
- Eagle Point, OR R+30
- Butte Falls, OR R+40
- Sams Valley, OR R+40
- White City, OR R+23
- Tiller, OR R+35
- Wimer, OR R+33
- Central Point, OR R+21
- Azalea, OR R+41
Cities with Similar Populations
- Sparkill, NY D+4
- Cat Spring, TX R+65
- Powells Crossroads, TN R+71
- University Heights, IA D+61
- Redwood, TX R+8
- Ranchester, WY R+67
- Hammett, PA R+36
- Big Horn, WY R+56
- Riceboro, GA D+45
- New Bohemia, VA R+21
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Oregon Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.