Upper Jay, NY Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Upper Jay

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Upper Jay is a true toss-up. About 50% of voters here vote Democratic and 50% Republican.

 

About 79% of adults in Upper Jay typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Upper Jay, ~39% vote Democratic, ~39% Republican, and ~22% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Upper Jay compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Upper Jay sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 25 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 24 leaning the other way.

Upper Jay runs about 12 points more Republican than New York as a whole.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Upper Jay. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+36) and the east side runs the most Republican (R+4), a spread of about 39 points.

Why Upper Jay leans the way it does

Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Upper Jay. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.

Park access and Democratic lean

Places with heavy park coverage tend to lean Democratic; Upper Jay, NY sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.

Why turnout in Upper Jay looks the way it does

Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Upper Jay is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 69%, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in Upper Jay have completed high school, above 85% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.