Vance is a Republican stronghold. About 17% of voters here vote Democratic and 83% Republican.
About 80% of adults in Vance typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Vance, ~14% vote Democratic, ~66% Republican, and ~20% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Vance compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Vance leans more Republican than 4 of 7 neighbors.
Vance runs about 52 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Why Vance leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Vance, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 9% of adults in Vance hold a bachelor's degree, about 17 points below the Texas average of 26%. Rural areas vote Republican, and Vance sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 1%, below 98% of cities).
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Vance, TX sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Vance looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Vance is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 49%, about 11 points below the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Barksdale, TX R+71
- Camp Wood, TX R+55
- Leakey, TX R+67
- Rio Frio, TX R+68
- Reagan Wells, TX R+64
- Rocksprings, TX R+34
- Montell, TX R+63
- Vanderpool, TX R+65
- Concan, TX R+68
- Utopia, TX R+70
Cities with Similar Populations
- Witts Springs, AR R+63
- Gurney, WI R+5
- Rare Metals, AZ D+63
- Pleasant Home, OH R+60
- Mcleod, ND R+50
- Taylors Corner, NC R+57
- Highland Lakes, FL R+49
- Enon, FL R+62
- Plew, MO R+73
- Brooks, CA R+18
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.