Wagner is a Republican stronghold. About 21% of voters here vote Democratic and 79% Republican.
About 78% of adults in Wagner typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Wagner, ~16% vote Democratic, ~62% Republican, and ~22% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Wagner compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Wagner leans more Republican than 2 of 3 neighbors.
Wagner runs about 37 points more Republican than Montana as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Wagner. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+65) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+54), a spread of about 11 points.
Why Wagner leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Wagner. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Wagner, MT sits above the national average on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Wagner looks the way it does
Turnout in Wagner sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Malta, MT R+44
- Dodson, MT R+60
- Landusky, MT R+41
- Saco, MT R+63
- Savoy, MT D+14
- Whitewater, MT R+65
- Lodge Pole, MT D+49
- Chapman, MT R+64
Cities with Similar Populations
- Loretto, MI R+36
- Barre Center, NY R+51
- Rushmore, MN R+57
- St. Croix Junction, ME R+18
- Campbellton, FL D+28
- Stillwater, WA D+12
- South Branch, MI R+43
- Treloar, MO R+54
- Oakfield, GA R+67
- Mandalay, LA R+71
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Montana Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.