Wilmington leans Democratic by roughly 30 points: about 65% of voters vote Democratic and 35% Republican.
About 38% of adults in Wilmington typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Wilmington, ~25% vote Democratic, ~13% Republican, and ~62% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Wilmington compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Wilmington leans more Democratic than 61 of 96 neighbors.
Wilmington runs about 10 points more Democratic than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Wilmington. The west side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+33) and the southeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+3), a spread of about 30 points.
Why Wilmington leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Wilmington, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 99% of residents in Wilmington live in densely developed areas, about 62 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 45% of adults in Wilmington have never been married, above 96% of cities.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Wilmington, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Wilmington looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Wilmington is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The uninsured rate here is about 22%, about 12 points above the California average of 10%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 57% of households in Wilmington rent, compared to around 37% in nearby cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 34% of adults in Wilmington report food insecurity, above 97% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Harbor City, CA D+27
- Lomita, CA D+17
- West Carson, CA D+25
- Carson, CA D+38
- San Pedro, CA D+27
- Rolling Hills, CA D+2
- Rolling Hills Estates, CA D+15
- Torrance, CA D+22
- Rancho Palos Verdes, CA D+18
- Signal Hill, CA D+34
Cities with Similar Populations
- Pico Rivera, CA D+28
- Cartersville, GA R+34
- Montebello, CA D+28
- Wellington, FL R+6
- Kannapolis, NC R+8
- Kapolei, HI D+7
- La Mesa, CA D+24
- Tigard, OR D+40
- Smyrna, TN R+16
- Blue Springs, MO R+7
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.