10038 is a Democratic stronghold. About 75% of voters here vote Democratic and 25% Republican.
About 53% of adults in 10038 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 10038, ~40% vote Democratic, ~13% Republican, and ~47% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 10038 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 10038 leans more Democratic than 107 of 189 neighbors.
10038 runs about 38 points more Democratic than New York as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 10038. The west side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+59) and the northeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+41), a spread of about 18 points.
Why 10038 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 10038, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. More than 99% of residents in 10038 live in densely developed areas, about 64 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and 10038 sits in the top quarter (about 67%, above 96% of zip codes). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 56% of adults in 10038 have never been married, above 97% of zip codes.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; 10038, NY sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 10038 looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 68% of households in 10038 rent, about 43 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 8% of homes in 10038 have more than one occupant per room, above 94% of zip codes. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 86% of adults in 10038 have completed high school, below 78% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.