11791 is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 82% of adults in 11791 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 11791, ~39% vote Democratic, ~43% Republican, and ~18% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 11791 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 11791 leans more Republican than 51 of 93 neighbors.
11791 runs about 16 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 11791 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 11791. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+8) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+12), a spread of about 20 points.
Why 11791 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 11791, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
11791 votes against the grain of New York. New York leans Democratic overall, while 11791 runs about 16 points more Republican.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; 11791, NY sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 11791 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 11791 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 73%, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 95% of households in 11791 own their home, about 19 points above the U.S. average of 75%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in 11791 have completed high school, above 83% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.