12738 leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican.
About 70% of adults in 12738 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 12738, ~29% vote Democratic, ~41% Republican, and ~30% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 12738 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 12738 leans more Republican than 22 of 39 neighbors.
12738 runs about 31 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 12738 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 12738 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 12738, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
12738 votes against the grain of New York. New York leans Democratic overall, while 12738 runs about 31 points more Republican. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 76% of households in 12738 are family households, above 83% of zip codes.
Park access and Republican lean
Places with low park coverage tend to lean Republican; 12738, NY sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in 12738 looks the way it does
Turnout in 12738 sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.