12811 is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 71% of adults in 12811 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 12811, ~34% vote Democratic, ~37% Republican, and ~29% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 12811 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 12811 leans more Republican than 3 of 12 neighbors.
12811 runs about 16 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 12811 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 12811 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 12811, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
12811 votes against the grain of New York. New York leans Democratic overall, while 12811 runs about 16 points more Republican.
Population density, never-married share, and Republican lean
Places that combine low population density and a never-married-heavy adult population tend to lean Republican, as 12811, NY does.
Why turnout in 12811 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 12811 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 66%, about 6 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.