12849 leans heavily Republican by roughly 44 points: about 28% of voters vote Democratic and 72% Republican.
About 69% of adults in 12849 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 12849, ~19% vote Democratic, ~50% Republican, and ~31% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 12849 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 12849 is the most Republican-leaning.
12849 runs about 56 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 12849 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 12849 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 12849, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
12849 votes against the grain of New York. New York leans Democratic overall, while 12849 runs about 56 points more Republican. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and 12849 sits in the bottom quarter (about 11%, below 93% of zip codes). A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 77% of households in 12849 are family households, above 86% of zip codes.
Renting and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; 12849, NY sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 12849 looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 92% of households in 12849 own their home, about 16 points above the New York average of 76%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.