14415 leans heavily Republican by roughly 32 points: about 34% of voters vote Democratic and 66% Republican.
About 56% of adults in 14415 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 14415, ~19% vote Democratic, ~37% Republican, and ~44% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 14415 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 14415 leans more Republican than 12 of 15 neighbors.
14415 runs about 45 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 14415 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 14415. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+43) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+13), a spread of about 31 points.
Why 14415 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 14415, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
14415 votes against the grain of New York. New York leans Democratic overall, while 14415 runs about 45 points more Republican. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 77% of households in 14415 are family households, above 85% of zip codes.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; 14415, NY sits below the national average on this measure.
Why turnout in 14415 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 14415 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 60%, below 59% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.