14859 leans heavily Republican by roughly 48 points: about 26% of voters vote Democratic and 74% Republican.
About 74% of adults in 14859 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 14859, ~19% vote Democratic, ~55% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 14859 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 14859 leans more Republican than 16 of 18 neighbors.
14859 runs about 60 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 14859 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 14859 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 14859, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with a high white share and below-average college attainment vote Republican. In 14859, about 96% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 24 points above the U.S. average of 72%; about 19% of adults hold a bachelor's degree, about 15 points below the New York average of 34%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 75% of households in 14859 are family households, above 79% of zip codes. 14859 runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; 14859, NY sits below the national average on this measure.
Why turnout in 14859 looks the way it does
Turnout in 14859 sits close to the national pattern. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.