14861 is a Republican stronghold. About 25% of voters here vote Democratic and 75% Republican.
About 66% of adults in 14861 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 14861, ~17% vote Democratic, ~49% Republican, and ~34% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 14861 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 14861 leans more Republican than 21 of 23 neighbors.
14861 runs about 63 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 14861 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 14861. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+53) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+39), a spread of about 14 points.
Why 14861 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 14861, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
14861 votes against the grain of New York. New York leans Democratic overall, while 14861 runs about 63 points more Republican. A high white share with below-average college attainment predicts Republican voting, and 14861 fits that profile on both counts.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; 14861, NY sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 14861 looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 88% of households in 14861 own their home, about 12 points above the New York average of 76%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.