15938 is a Republican stronghold. About 24% of voters here vote Democratic and 76% Republican.
About 73% of adults in 15938 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 15938, ~18% vote Democratic, ~56% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 15938 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 15938 leans more Republican than 24 of 40 neighbors.
15938 runs about 50 points more Republican than Pennsylvania as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 15938. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+61) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+46), a spread of about 15 points.
Why 15938 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 15938, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 86% of residents in 15938 drive to work alone, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 74%. A high white share with below-average college attainment predicts Republican voting, and 15938 fits that profile on both counts.
Housing overcrowding and voter turnout
Places with low overcrowding tend to turn out at a higher rate; 15938, PA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 15938 looks the way it does
Turnout in 15938 sits close to the national pattern. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Pennsylvania Department of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.