22514 leans Republican by roughly 24 points: about 38% of voters vote Democratic and 62% Republican.
About 71% of adults in 22514 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 22514, ~27% vote Democratic, ~44% Republican, and ~29% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 22514 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 22514 is the most Republican-leaning.
22514 runs about 30 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 22514 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 22514. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+30) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+8), a spread of about 22 points.
Why 22514 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 22514, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
22514 votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 22514 runs about 30 points more Republican. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and 22514 sits in the bottom quarter (about 17%, below 75% of zip codes).
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; 22514, VA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 22514 looks the way it does
Turnout in 22514 sits close to the national pattern. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.