22538 leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 46% of adults in 22538 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 22538, ~21% vote Democratic, ~25% Republican, and ~54% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 22538 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 22538 leans more Republican than 5 of 12 neighbors.
22538 runs about 13 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 22538 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 22538 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 22538, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
22538 votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 22538 runs about 13 points more Republican.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; 22538, VA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 22538 looks the way it does
High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, mostly because the housing stress common in those areas makes voting harder. 22538 sits in the top 15% nationally on a violent-crime measure. See CrimeGrade for more details. Strong routine healthcare access lines up with higher turnout, and 22538 sits in the top quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.