23461 leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.
About 45% of adults in 23461 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 23461, ~19% vote Democratic, ~26% Republican, and ~55% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 23461 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 23461 leans more Republican than 10 of 11 neighbors.
23461 runs about 22 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 23461 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 23461 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 23461, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 91% of households in 23461 are family households, about 25 points above the U.S. average of 67%. 23461 runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with renter-heavy households tend to turn out at a lower rate; 23461, VA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 23461 looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 66% of households in 23461 rent, about 41 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Strong routine healthcare access lines up with higher turnout, and 23461 sits in the top quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.