23882 leans slightly Republican by roughly 6 points: about 47% of voters vote Democratic and 53% Republican.
About 76% of adults in 23882 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 23882, ~36% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 23882 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 23882 leans more Republican than 2 of 7 neighbors.
23882 runs about 12 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 23882 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 23882. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+11) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+22), a spread of about 33 points.
Why 23882 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 23882, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 4% of residents in 23882 live in densely developed areas, about 22 points below the Virginia average of 26%. 23882 runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; 23882, VA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 23882 looks the way it does
Turnout in 23882 sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.