23891 leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.
About 52% of adults in 23891 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 23891, ~22% vote Democratic, ~30% Republican, and ~48% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 23891 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 23891 leans more Republican than 5 of 8 neighbors.
23891 runs about 21 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 23891 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 23891. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+19) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+32), a spread of about 51 points.
Why 23891 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 23891, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 89% of residents in 23891 drive to work alone, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 74%. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and 23891 sits in the bottom quarter (about 8%, below 97% of zip codes). 23891 runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; 23891, VA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 23891 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 23891 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 24% of adults in 23891 report food insecurity, above 88% of zip codes. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 76% of adults in 23891 have completed high school, below 95% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.