32686 leans Republican by roughly 22 points: about 39% of voters vote Democratic and 61% Republican.
About 71% of adults in 32686 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 32686, ~28% vote Democratic, ~43% Republican, and ~29% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 32686 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 32686 leans more Republican than 2 of 10 neighbors.
32686 runs about 8 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 32686. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+11) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+39), a spread of about 51 points.
Why 32686 leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in 32686. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Park access and Republican lean
Places with low park coverage tend to lean Republican; 32686, FL sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in 32686 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 32686 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 57%, below 70% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.