34470 leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.
About 67% of adults in 34470 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 34470, ~27% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 34470 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 34470 leans more Republican than 5 of 17 neighbors.
34470 runs about 7 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 34470. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+7) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+37), a spread of about 44 points.
Why 34470 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 34470, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
34470 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 88%, far above the Florida average of 57%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; 34470, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 34470 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 34470 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.